Emma Alice Coppel wrote her masters thesis during the spring of 2025 as part of the Critical Physical Geography working group. Here is her abstract:
How does conflict affect forests? In Northwestern Syria, some of the country’s last Mediterranean forests are silently disappearing. These forests, mostly found in the governorates of Idlib, Tartus, Latakia and Hama, are important for climate regulation, biodiversity and livelihoods, but they’ve come under growing threat. Since the Syrian conflict began in 2011, concerns have grown about the long-term impact of conflict on these fragile landscapes. Fires are often suspected to increase during times of intensified violence, but the exact relationship between conflict, fire and tree cover remain unclear.
This study explores that relationship by analysing 20 years (2004–2023) of forest cover change in the region. It investigates how forest loss connects with armed conflict, fire outbreaks, and shifts in climate. The aim is to better understand how these pressures interact and what that reveals about the hidden environmental toll of war.
Since it’s too dangerous for scientists to work on the ground in war zones, this study used data collected from satellites. It looked at forest loss, fire outbreaks, weather changes and records of violent events over 20 years. By using data like global forest and fire maps, temperature and rainfall data and conflict event data, the study analysed where and when forests were lost and how it was related to fires and conflict events. Special mapping techniques were used to find places where fire and violence often happened together.
The results show notable forest loss across all four governorates, particularly from 2011 onwards. Latakia, Hama and Idlib emerged as key area for forest cover loss. High fire activity years, such as 2012, 2016 and 2020, aligned closely with peaks in forest loss, especially in areas experiencing active conflict, however indirect effects of the war also contributed to forest loss. Spatially, fire and conflict events revealed to have a clear overlap, where high conflict zones occurred near high fire zones, most noticeably in northern Latakia, and Idlib. Additionally, the study found strong correlations between fire events and climate anomalies, such as increased temperatures and reduced rainfall, demonstrating the climate’s role as a key enabler of fire outbreaks.
Overall, this research shows that forest loss in Syria cannot be explained by a single cause. Instead, it results from the combined pressures of armed conflict and its indirect effects, climate change, and fire. These forces feed into one another, accelerating forest loss and damaging ecosystems already under stress. By bringing together long-term environmental and conflict data, this project provides new insight into how nature is affected by war and highlights the need for future interdisciplinary research that includes social ecological and political factors.
The full thesis can be found here.
